Is The Spring Market Doing Better Than Expected?

• May 6th

by UrbanTurf Staff

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The spring housing market was shaping up to be another slow season — until two consecutive weeks of strong pending sales data changed the conversation.

In his latest analysis of the market, Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen found that new pending home sales were up 10% above the same week last year, and the 4-week rolling average is running 6.5% ahead of 2025.

"Our count of weekly pending home sales has surged in the last couple weeks, to the highest level in several years," Simonsen said. 

The uptick in demand, however, is bumping up against a stubborn inventory problem. Total supply stands at approximately 986,000 homes nationally — just 1.8% above last year — while new listings came in at around 90,000 for the week, roughly 6% fewer than a year ago. In other words, buyers showing up to the spring market may find fewer options than they'd hoped. 

The broader affordability picture offers some counterbalance. The asking price per square foot for homes on the market is running 2.4% below 2025 levels, and when combined with a modest dip in mortgage rates and continued wage gains of around 3.5% annually, affordability has improved by close to 10% from a year ago in much of the country, Simonsen noted. 

Still, Simonsen remains cautious — the Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped recently, and a late-week spike in mortgage rates on inflation concerns is a reminder that this rebound isn't guaranteed. For now, the data suggests the spring market has more life in it than the gloomy headlines had implied. The next few weeks of pending sales data will be the real test of whether this momentum holds.

This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/is_the_spring_market_doing_better_than_expected/24596.