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The Amazon Effect, or Lack Thereof, One Year Later

by Nena Perry-Brown

A rendering of JBG SMITH's plans for RiverHouse.

In the year since Amazon announced it was establishing its second headquarters in Northern Virginia, UrbanTurf has periodically taken stock of various signs from the regional housing market indicating "HQ2"-fueled interest.

Now, a new report delves deeply into how the market has responded over the past year in anticipation of the Amazon campus.

CoreLogic's overall findings indicate a negligible impact on housing prices in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria and Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville metro areas, and it seems more reasonable to conclude that HQ2 shielded the area from the price dampening seen nationwide. 

However, zip codes which boast close proximity to the future Amazon campus did see strong price growth. Five of the top 10 zip codes with the largest year-over-year growth in the region sit within four miles of HQ2, and eight are within ten miles.

Click to enlarge.

Prices in these zip codes rose anywhere from 8.7 to 12.9 percent. Interestingly, however, the three local zip codes with the strongest price growth are at least seven miles away from HQ2: 20815 (Chevy Chase), 22180 (Vienna), and 22306 (Mount Vernon). 

The correlation between proximity to HQ2 and increased home prices was weak until March 2019. Overall, it may be too soon to definitively conclude that Amazon's plans have had a direct effect on the local housing market thus far, although there is evidence of a correlation between proximity and prices.

This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-amazon-effect-or-lack-thereof-one-year-later/16143

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