The 3 Most Important Charts For the DC-Area Housing Market in the Coming Months
Today, UrbanTurf is taking a look at what we think will be the three metrics that will determine the direction of the DC-area market in the coming months.
The main theme of the market in the coming year will be something that homebuyers are all too familiar with: a dearth of homes for sale. In late 2020, there was about a 1.5-month supply of homes for sale in the DC region, historically one of the lowest inventories on record. December 2021 looked at that number and said hold my beer, as data last week revealed that the housing supply fell to its lowest level in 20 years last month. More homes will hit the market as spring approaches, but the influx likely won't be enough to satisfy homebuyers on the hunt.
story continues belowloading...
story continues above
Contract ratio may be the most important metric to watch over the coming months, particularly if inventory remains low. This statistic compares the total number of homes under contract in a given period to the overall number of active listings, making it a good marker for the level of competition in the market. A higher ratio signifies an increase in contracts compared to supply. For example, a ratio of 1.2 means there are 1.2 listings under contract for every listing that is active.
For the last three months of 2021, the contract ratio in the DC area was above 1.0. and rose each month. If it stays in this range or rises as spring approaches, it means competition in the market in increasing. And that competition is already intense: in the last week, UrbanTurf has heard of two listings getting upwards of 20 offers each.
The one thing that might give buyers hesitation this spring is laid out in the chart above. Today, long-term interest rates rose to 3.56 percent, a 51 basis point increase since the beginning of the year and the highest that rates have been since early 2020. While still quite low by historic standards, buyers in recent years have grown accustom to rates hovering around 3 percent or lower. It will be interesting to see how the buying public react to these rising rates in the coming months.
Data provided by Bright MLS. Photo courtesy of HomeVisit.
See other articles related to: contract ratio, dc area housing market, dc area housing supply, dc area market trends, dc housing inventory, interest rates, mortgage rates
This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-3-most-important-charts-for-the-dc-area-housing-market-in-the-coming-mo/19161.
Most Popular... This Week • Last 30 Days • Ever
Ten years later, plans to construct nearly 150 townhomes at DC's most hotly debated d... read »
LEGO lovers will likely be first in line for the National Building Museum's latest ex... read »
JBG Smith has plans for a seven-story project along Crystal Drive.... read »
The "trailer park" where homes sell for millions; a renters utopia; and ideas for whe... read »
Airbnb's party crackdown; the return of Adams Morgan; the resurgence of Cleveland Par... read »
Virginia's homebuyer assistance programs can seem complex. This edition of First-Time... read »
The residential projects that have sprouted up on the Maryland and DC sides of the Fr... read »
With a groundbreaking ceremony on Wednesday, the redevelopment of the Georgetown Wes... read »
The 23,600 square-foot mansion just hit the market, and would set a record if it fetc... read »
The immaculately kept 100-year-old house features six bedrooms and four-and-a-half ba... read »
With this weekend's DC houseboat tour a day away, UrbanTurf thought it only fitting t... read »
President Obama travels to Denver this morning to sign the stimulus bill that has bee... read »
In this week's installment of Ask An Agent, a reader wonders if there is a rule for h... read »
As The Wharf prepares to begin construction, DC's houseboat community heads to its ne... read »
In this week's installment of Ask An Agent, a reader asks a fairly common question th... read »
- First-Timer Primer: Virginia's Home Buyer Assistance Programs
- Mall Conversions, Trader Joes? The 1,500 Units in the Friendship Heights Pipeline
- The Four Seasons Private Residences in Georgetown Break Ground
- DC's Blaine Mansion Lists For $30 Million, A Potentially Record-Setting Price in the City
- Now Selling: A 16th Street Heights Victorian on an Island of Its Own
DC Real Estate Guides
Short guides to navigating the DC-area real estate market
We've collected all our helpful guides for buying, selling and renting in and around Washington, DC in one place. Visit guides.urbanturf.com or start browsing below!
Intro guides for first-time home buyers
Awesome and unusual real estate from across the DC Metro