Today, UrbanTurf is taking a look at what we think will be the three metrics that will determine the direction of the DC-area market in the coming months.
The path of interest rates over the last 8 months had a direct effect on the path of the housing market and that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. This week, 30-year mortgage rates approached 6.5%; last year at this time, long-term rates were averaging 3.22%. If rates continue to rise, the pace of home sales will remain slow. If they fall, homebuyers will be more inclined to get off the sidelines.
For years, home prices in the DC region only seemed to go up. As the market changes, that is no longer the case. While DC-area home prices were up 1.4% in November, it was the slowest rate of year-over-year appreciation since 2018. Home prices fell in DC proper, Arlington and Alexandria, and regionwide, the median home price in November was 9% lower than the 2022 peak. While it's impossible to predict their path, a home price correction could help offset the effect of rising interest rates.
From Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS' chief economist:
Right now, the job market is pretty resilient, even as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively over the past 12 months. If the labor market continues to be strong, that bodes well for a strong housing market. However, if the labor market weakens (i.e. job losses, unemployment rates up), the housing market could also be weaker. The DC area tends to do better than other places during economic downturns, but the labor market is still key to watch.
This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/rates_prices_supply_the_3_charts_that_will_define_the_dc_area_housing_marke/20472.
Most Popular... This Week • Last 30 Days • Ever
The development will be located a few blocks south of the Takoma Metro station.... read »
The new development along South Capitol Street includes a new amenity for UrbanTurf: ... read »
DC's Office of Planning recently looked at DC's migration patterns in 2022. Today, Ur... read »
A new plan is on the boards for a group of five townhouses in the middle of DC's Chin... read »
Crescent Communities has filed a site plan application with the county for a 467-unit... read »
UrbanTurf has compiled virtual looks at large new developments around the DC region.... read »
Why condo fees are high in some buildings and low in others can be a difficult questi... read »
Dupont Circle’s Swann House, a former 15-bedroom bed and breakfast, will be listed ... read »
The two-building project will include approximately 825 residential units, 151 lodgin... read »
There are two new proposals to redevelop the center at 14th and U Streets NW that are... read »
With this weekend's DC houseboat tour a day away, UrbanTurf thought it only fitting t... read »
President Obama travels to Denver this morning to sign the stimulus bill that has bee... read »
In this week's installment of Ask An Agent, a reader wonders if there is a rule for h... read »
As The Wharf prepares to begin construction, DC's houseboat community heads to its ne... read »
In this week's installment of Ask An Agent, a reader asks a fairly common question th... read »
DC Real Estate Guides
Short guides to navigating the DC-area real estate market
We've collected all our helpful guides for buying, selling and renting in and around Washington, DC in one place. Visit guides.urbanturf.com or start browsing below!
Intro guides for first-time home buyers
Awesome and unusual real estate from across the DC Metro