The DC-area housing market appears to be slowing down a bit – and that’s a good thing.

In normal times, the real estate market follows a pattern of a faster pace of sales from the early spring through the early summer, a lull in the dog days of August and then an uptick in the fall. The holiday season tends to be slower, with fewer homes on the market and fewer buyers searching for properties. 

As we know, the pandemic upended everything – including the housing market – in early 2020. After a brief pause, the real estate market became a bright spot for the economy. Home prices broke records in the metro area, buyers faced stiff competition for the limited homes for sale and bids well above the asking price became commonplace. Homes that went on the market on a Thursday were often under contract by Monday.

While that scenario may have been tantalizing for home sellers, it was wildly frustrating for buyers. However, market statistics indicate that the region is now returning to its normal late summer through winter calm. Bright MLS data shows a moderately slower pace of price growth and homes still selling quickly but sitting on the market for a few days longer than earlier in the year.

Fall and Winter Warmer for Buyers

Whether homeowners choose to sell their homes and how much buyer demand there will be depends on a variety of factors including consumer confidence and mortgage rates. The lack of homes for sale has had a severe impact on the DC housing market for several years. Inventory levels remain tight, ranging from 1.3 months of supply for mid-priced single-family homes to 4.6 months of supply for higher-priced condos. Normally, a six-month supply of homes is considered a balanced market.

Another indicator of whether the housing market will be more balanced this fall and winter is the Bright MLS | T3 Home Demand Index, which measures buyer demand. The Index looks at real-time data such as listing views by agents and buyers, home showing requests, showing appointments and recent sales. The Housing Demand Index dropped 2.3% from September to October, and was down more than 12.4% percent compared to October 2020.

The number of property showings declined in October compared to the previous year, a sign that buyers may be pulling back from the market. Sellers need to be aware that buyers have become increasingly wary about overpaying for homes. They’re willing to make an offer when they see the value in a home’s location and condition, but less eager to be caught in a buying frenzy.

This fall and winter, both buyers and sellers can rely on the help of a real estate agent who can analyze market data in the context of their individual needs. It looks like both sides of the transaction will have a little more breathing room to make carefully considered decisions, too.