740,000 or 840,000? DC's Varying Ten-Year Population Projections
As evidence mounts of slowing population growth in DC proper, the city's latest report from the Office of the Chief Financial Officer offers some projections for how the population will change over the next ten years.
While DC’s population reached 705,749 people and grew for the 14th consecutive year in 2019, the 4,202 year-over-year increase was the smallest observed in 12 years. Negative net migration from elsewhere in the country over the past two years is largely to blame; since 2018, immigration is the only reason DC's population has grown. Natural population growth, or the number of births minus the number of deaths, has been holding steady around 4,000 annually.
story continues below
loading...story continues above
Population growth is expected to remain slow, according to firms IHS Markit and Moody's Analytics. Those two firms respectively estimate the 2022 population to be 717,084 and 721,975, each with an increase smaller than one percent annually from 2019 until then.
Ten-year forecasts vary more widely. IHS Markit projects a 2020 population of 711,790 and a 2030 population of 744,390. Meanwhile, Moody's projects a 2020 population of 713,400 and a 2030 population of 781,000, noting that net migration will increase slightly during this period, accounting for 30,000 of this ten-year population increase.
The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) projects the largest population increases for the city. Their predictions put the 2020 population at 729,500 and the 2030 population at 842,200. COG's forecast assumes continued annual net migration of 7,000 per year, although that is based on the pace of growth from 2000-2008. COG has also previously projected that DC will have a population approaching 1 million residents by 2045.
See other articles related to: demographics, population
This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/740000_or_840000_dcs_varying_ten_year_population_projections/16568.
Most Popular... This Week • Last 30 Days • Ever
In this article, UrbanTurf will explain what special assessments are, how they work, ... read »
Plans are moving forward at the site of a long-planned project in Ivy City, however w... read »
Nearly 1,400 residential units are on the boards around Union Market, about the same ... read »
Up 8% year-over-year, it is the first time that prices have exceeded $800,000 for det... read »
If there was ever a place where the old adage “one man’s trash is another man’s... read »
- What Are Special Assessments in Condo Buildings and What Do They Cover?
- Douglas Development Pitches Large Warehouse For New City Site Along New York Avenue
- Hotels, A Public Park and The 1,400 Units In The Works For Union Market
- The Price For A House in The DC Area Hit A New High in April
- Tile, Furniture, Appliances & (Much) More -- The Local Warehouse Chock Full of Salvaged Home Goods
DC Real Estate Guides
Short guides to navigating the DC-area real estate market
We've collected all our helpful guides for buying, selling and renting in and around Washington, DC in one place. Start browsing below!
First-Timer Primers
Intro guides for first-time home buyers
Unique Spaces
Awesome and unusual real estate from across the DC Metro