Trulia: Housing Market Will Return to Normal in 2016

• November 28, 2012

by Shilpi Paul

Courtesy of Trulia Trends

On Wednesday, Trulia Trends reported that its monthly housing barometer indicated that the housing market is 47 percent back to normal, and that the market is recovering at an accelerated pace.

To make their determination, Trulia compares current numbers in three categories (existing home sales, foreclosure rates and construction starts) to the corresponding statistics during the worst of the housing crisis and the pre-crisis “normal” period. The three numbers are then averaged together to determine how well the market is improving.

But to most, “47 percent back to normal” doesn’t mean a whole lot, so UrbanTurf spoke with Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko to get a better sense of what that actually means and when he sees the market getting 100% back to normal.

“47 percent is the answer to the question ‘Are we there yet?’” Kolko told UrbanTurf. “I consider 0 percent to be the worst point of the housing crisis, and 100 percent to be the long-term normal, healthy level, so 47 percent means we’re almost halfway back to normal. Below 50 percent, we’re still closer to the worst of the crisis than to normal, but above 50 percent we’re closer to normal.”

For what it’s worth, October’s 47 percent rate of healing is the highest so far determined by Trulia. The barometer rose from 34 percent within three months, the biggest jump since the real estate company started keeping track.

But the question on everyone’s lips is: When will we get back to 100% normalcy?

“That will vary hugely across cities,” said Kolko. “But at the pace the recovery is proceeding, ‘normal’ is likely to come in several years, around 2016.”

For the full analysis, check out Trulia.

This article originally published at http://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/trulia_housing_market_will_return_to_normal_in_2016/6354