The Three Most Important Charts for the Fall Housing Market

• September 13th 2019

by UrbanTurf Staff

With the fall housing market getting started, UrbanTurf looked at what we think will be the three metrics that will determine the direction of the DC-area market in the coming months.

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Home prices in DC have never been higher. In the last five months, the median sales price for the city has either set an all-time record or set a record for a specific month, eclipsing $600,000 twice. The fatigue with this upward trend is represented by a drop off in sales during this period, so it will be telling to see if that continues into the fall. 

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The past few months have seen the return of inventory to a regional market that hasn't seen a balanced supply of homes for sale in years. That inventory revival took a hit in August. As the chart above illustrates, active inventory fell off in every jurisdiction, from a very slight dip in DC proper to a plummeting supply in Alexandria. Overall, inventory dropped off 20 percent in the DC region. If that continues, so too will the frustration among buyers who think there isn't enough to choose from. 

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Contract ratio compares the total number of homes under contract in a given period to the overall number of active listings, making it a good marker for the level of competition in the housing market. For years, this ratio in DC hovered above 1.0, but for the last five months it has been below that level, an indication of a less competitive market. This is good for buyers, but not for sellers, although real estate changes from block to block, and as UrbanTurf has reported, there are still some very competitive neighborhoods out there. 

This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/the-three-most-important-charts-for-the-fall-housing-market/15876.